Blackjack Probability: Things You Need to Know to Have an Edge

A casino is majorly a place of negative money for people. Mostly people walk out of the casino questioning them of why did they lose! And if facts are to be understood, it’s inevitable that casinos would let everyone win.

Casino, although advertised to give a payout of above 95%, have the probability of providing for a high payout once in lifetime. But as compared to the casino slots, the table games stand out differently. With the table games the probability of winning is exclusive to each player. There are mathematical analysis and concepts talked about in this article. And this one stands true to the Blackjack probability of most Live Blackjack games.

Game statistics and Blackjack Probability

Blackjack Probability is deduced by the past events which are related to future outcomes. Unlike the other casino games where each individual round has its own outcome, Blackjack is rather a different one bringing the players some hope that the game will change soon.

Therefore anyone playing Blackjack and experiencing a number of losses in a row are expected to have a win coming on next!

Why Blackjack is different?

In Blackjack each of the cards assigned to the player has its own value. These values are added to get a specific count. The rules of the game are such that in some way or the other it works in favor of the players. As and when the cards are dealt, if the player gets an ace or a 10 the game runs in their favor. Even if the dealer gets anything between 2 to 7, the game is in the favor of the player.

In this the players can use the Hi/Lo counting system to evaluate how much advantage they have over the casino. The cards between 2-6 are positive 1, face cards, tens and ace are negative 1 and 7,8, and 9 are zeros. After a running count is done by the player the estimation has to be made of how many decks are remaining. The count is then divided by the deck number to find the true count.

The true count is then subtracted by one to come to a true edge of winning. Every unit of true count establishes a 0.5% edge of the player over the house. The higher cards on the table increase the true count for the player and therefore their wins too. This happens majorly for three reasons:

• Blackjack has faster moving rounds with their related outcomes which is asymmetric. This ultimately benefits the players.
• Splitting and doubling heightens the chances of the players win even in tough situations. As they elevate the player benefits.
• Players can vary their strategies and the dealer cannot. This gives the players an edge over their decisions to stand, hit or double down. When the dealer is weak it brings about a chance for the player to make moves.

Calculating Blackjack probability with mathematics

It is smart to calculate your winning chance when playing a game of blackjack. For this there are three elements required i.e. the size of the bet, number of spins and the advantage percent. The quick formula is Win= (Bet *Advantage % * played hands)

Just put together a situation where the player bets 1 dollar on a flipping coin a hundred times. The probability is 50-50. Therefore Win=1*50%*100 i.e. 50. The player wins 50 and loses 50. The equation gets settled.

However, even with a flipping coin the probability of getting 50-50 is not always the same. One might end up with 5 heads in 100 flips. This does not mean that the casino has cheated, it might just be matter of luck. There are standard deviation formulas to stick to for this one.

The Blackjack probability depends on the equivalence point of the casinos. What is expected of the series of games might change in the course of time giving only a deviated result.

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